Nov. 2016
Survey of Corporate Attitudes toward Economic Outlook for 2017
"US Economy"- Rapid increase in a cause of concern for 2017
— 40% sees Trumpnomics as "Negative Impact" on Japanese Economy —
Introduction
The Second Preliminary Estimates of real GDP growth rate for July - September 2016 announced on December 8, 2016, showed a 0.3% increase compared to the previous quarter (April - June 2016), a 1.3% increase on an annualized basis, and experienced their third straight quarter of positive growth. While there are indicators that show an improving trend, such as an increase in construction units of new houses and continued increases in the ratio of job openings to applicants, consumer spending still tends to be at a standstill. A disparity in business confidence by business category and region is appearing.
Teikoku Databank has conducted a survey of corporate attitudes toward the economic trends for 2016, and the economic outlook for 2017. This survey was conducted in conjunction with the November 2016 TDB Trends Research. The survey for economic outlook has been conducted every year since November 2006, and this is the 11th survey.
*Survey period: November 16 – November 30, 2016; Companies Surveyed: 23,850; Valid Responses: 10,110 (Response Rate: 42.4%).
*Details of this survey can be found on the dedicated Economic Trend Survey HP. (http://www.tdb-di.com).
Primary points of survey results(summary)
- 1 5.7% of companies said that they judged the economic trend for 2016 to be a "recovery" phase, which shows a decrease of 1.8 points from the previous survey (in November 2015). Conversely, 53.9 % of companies said a '"temporary respite of recovery," which means over 50% for two consecutive years; 19.3% of companies said a "deterioration" phase, which is at almost the same level as previously, and 21.0% of companies said they "don't know," which is the highest since the survey began.
- 2 11.0% of companies anticipate "recovery" in the economic outlook for 2017, which is at almost the same level as the outlook for 2016 (survey in November 2015). While the number of companies anticipating "deterioration" or "temporary respite of recovery" has decreased, those responding "don't know" exceeded 30% for the first time since the survey began. Uncertainty over future prospects has further increased.
- 3 Most companies said a cause of concern for the economy for 2017 is "US Economy" (41.8%, an increase of 30.1 points over last year). "Oil and material prices (rise)" and "lack of manpower" are ranked second and third, respectively. "Chinese economy," which was the top concern last time (21.0%, a decrease of 25.4 points over last year), and "consumption tax system," which was ranked the second concern last time (12.6%, a decrease of 25.1 points over last year), have significantly decreased.
- 4 "Measures to expand consumer spending," "Increase in income," "Resolution of the pension problem (elimination of future anxiety)," "Personal tax cuts," and "Increase in public-works spending" are listed as the top five measures required for economic recovery. Around 20% of companies consider "Childbirth and childcare support" and "Resolution of nursing care issue" to be important policy measures.
- 5 9.9% of companies said that the economic policy of President-elect Trump would have a “positive impact" on the Japanese economy. 37.8% said, "negative impact," 10.3% said "no impact," and 42.0% said "don't know."