Economic Trends Research, January 2019
Domestic economy, signs of entering a recession phase
— Affected by a slowdown in exports to China, etc.,against the backdrop of US-China trade disputes —
Overview of January 2019: Signs of entering a recession phase
The economic diffusion index (DI) in January 2019 was 48.1, down 1.3 points from the previous month, and worsened for the second consecutive month. In addition to a slowdown in exports to China, the climate’s tendency of unusually warm winters and a manpower shortage were also negative factors. As a result, the domestic economy has worsened and begun to show signs of entering a recession phase.
Future outlook: Uncertainty has intensified
The future domestic economy is likely to be pushed downward due to growing risks centered around overseas, in addition to the consumption tax rate hike and increasing cost burden. Uncertainty has intensified further.
Primary points of survey results(summary)
- 1 By industry : All twelve business categories in “Manufacturing” worsened, with a significant drop of 2.1 points.
- 2 By size : “Large enterprises,” ”SMEs,” and “small enterprises” all worsened for the first time in seven months.
- 3 By region : All ten regions worsened for the first time in two years and eleven months.
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