Economic Trends Research, February 2019
Economic DI worsened for three months in a row
— A decline in consumption after the consumption tax hike and growing overseas risks are grounds for concern —
Overview of January 2019: Signs of entering a recession phase
The economic diffusion index (DI) in February 2019 was 47.2, down 0.9 points from the previous month, and worsened for the third consecutive month. In addition to a slowdown in exports to China and a downturn in automobile-related businesses, a manpower shortage and an increased cost burden also had adverse effects, and the domestic economy has begun to show signs of entering a recession phase.
Future outlook: Uncertainty has intensified
While capital investment and consumer spending underpin the domestic economy, there are concerns about a decline in consumption after the consumption tax hike and growing overseas risks, and uncertainty has further intensified.
Primary points of survey results(summary)
- 1 By industry : Nine of the ten industries worsened. In the “manufacturing” industry, a decline in machinery-related performance continues.
- 2 By size : “Large enterprises,” ”SMEs,” and “small enterprises” all worsened for the second consecutive month.
- 3 By region : Eight of the ten regions worsened. Overseas trends also impact on the local economy.
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