Information Releases

Jul. 2019

Economic Trends Research, July 2019

Domestic economy has worsened for eight months in a row
— Downturn in overseas economies,further worsened due to unstable weather —

Overview of July 2019: Possibility of entering a recession phase

The economic diffusion index (DI) in July 2019 was 44.6, down 0.5 points from the previous month, and worsened for the eighth consecutive month. Amid the continuing deterioration in the manufacturing industry and declining capital investment incentives, as well as the impact of unstable weather, the possibility of entering a recession phase has increased.

Future outlook: Uncertainty has further intensified

There are concerns over the impact of US-Japan trade talks and the interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board, besides the decrease in consumption due to the consumption tax hike, and uncertainty about the domestic economy has further intensified.

Primary points of survey results(summary)

1. 1 By industry : ix of the ten industries worsened. Adversely affected by unstable weather and export deceleration.
2. 2 By size : All sizes worsened for the fourth consecutive month. Economic deceleration overseas and unstable weather exerted downward pressure.
3. 3 By region : Seven of the ten regions worsened. Capital investment incentives declined in nine regions.

Economic Trends Research, July 2019