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Economic Trends Research, August 2019

Deteriorating trend in manufacturing industry continues
— Marginal improvement overall for the first time in nine months —

Overview of August 2019: Possibility of entering a recession phase

The economic diffusion index (DI) in August 2019 was 44.7, up 0.1 point from the previous month, and improved for the first time in nine months. While the possibility of entering a recession phase has increased in the domestic economy due to continuing export deceleration and a decline in motivation for investment, increased public works had an upward effect.

Future outlook: Uncertainty has further intensified

With overseas risks in addition to the decrease in consumption and increasing cost burden after the consumption tax hike, uncertainty about the domestic economy has further intensified.

Primary points of survey results(summary)

  1. 1 By industry : While four of the ten industries improved, six industries, including manufacturing, worsened.
  2. 2 By size : Small-sized enterprises improved for the first time in nine months.
  3. 3 By region : Six of the ten regions improved. Advancement of schedules of public works was a positive factor.
Economic Trends Research,August2019
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