Economic Trends Research, May 2019
Domestic Economy may have entered a recession phase
— Negatively affected by the US-China trade conflict and the long holidays —
Overview of May 2019: Possibility of entering a recession phase
The economic diffusion index (DI) in May 2019 was 45.4, down 1.4 points from the previous month, and worsened for the sixth consecutive month. Intensified US-China trade conflict coincides with emerging negative effects associated with the long holidays, and domestic economy may have entered a recession phase.
Future outlook: Uncertainty has further intensified
Uncertainty about the future domestic economy has further intensified, such as how the US-China trade conflict will turn out, in addition to concerns about declining consumption due to the consumption tax hike.
Primary points of survey results(summary)
- 1 By industry : All ten industries worsened. The long holidays have had a negative effect.
- 2 By size : Business confidence of “SMEs” have significantly deteriorated, being largely impacted by the US-China trade conflict.
- 3 By region : All ten regions worsened. A downturn in urban areas exerted downward pressure on all regions.
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